| Article ID: | iaor19932191 |
| Country: | United States |
| Volume: | 39 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Start Page Number: | 17 |
| End Page Number: | 31 |
| Publication Date: | Jan 1993 |
| Journal: | Management Science |
| Authors: | Kahneman Daniel, Lovallo Dan |
| Keywords: | decision, forecasting: applications, management |
Decision makers have a strong tendency to consider problems as unique. They isolate the current choice from future opportunities and neglect the statistics of the past in evaluating current plans. Overly cautious attitudes to risk result from a failure to appreciate the effects of statistical aggregation in mitigating relative risk. Overly optimistic forecasts result from the adoption of an inside view of the problem, which anchors predictions on plans and scenarios. The conflicting biases are documented in psychological research. Possible implications for decision making in organizations are examined.