Pandemic drug rationing model: Nebraska state government case study

The avian influenza‐A (bird flu) is fatally active today and could mutate into a serious pandemic at any time. Countries are developing and updating strategies to cope with potential outbreaks of pandemics. The avian influenza‐A outbreak that occurred between 2000 and 2010 possessed the greatest deadly threat since the Black Plague of Europe. The US Federal Government's response to the avian influenza‐A involved providing a limited ration of vaccine doses to state governments that would then decide how best to ration allocations. This paper presents an actual case study where an integer linear programming model was developed for the state of Nebraska to solve its rationing of antiviral drugs to regional medical departments for ex‐ante (before event) and medias res (middle of the event) decision purposes. The capabilities of the modelling approach provide a unique contribution to the literature and are applicable to any kind of pandemic rationing effort.