The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds

The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds

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Article ID: iaor20164560
Volume: 12
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 130
End Page Number: 143
Publication Date: Sep 2015
Journal: Decision Analysis
Authors: , , ,
Keywords: decision: studies, forecasting: applications
Abstract:

We investigate optimal group member configurations for producing a maximally accurate group forecast. Our approach accounts for group members that may be biased in their forecasts and/or have errors that correlate with the criterion values being forecast. We show that for large forecasting groups, the diversity of individual forecasts linearly trades off with forecaster accuracy when determining optimal group composition.

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