Article ID: | iaor2016644 |
Volume: | 35 |
Issue: | 2 |
Start Page Number: | 179 |
End Page Number: | 188 |
Publication Date: | Mar 2016 |
Journal: | Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Chen Junyi, Bessler David A, Kibriya Shahriar, Price Edwin |
Keywords: | behaviour, simulation |
This paper considers univariate and multivariate models to forecast monthly conflict events in the Sudan over the out‐of‐sample period 2009–2012. The models used to generate these forecasts were based on a specification from a machine learning algorithm fit to 2000–2008 monthly data. The model that includes previous month's wheat price performs better than a similar model which does not include past wheat prices (the univariate model). Both models did not perform well in forecasting conflict in a neighborhood of the 2012 ‘Heglig crisis’.