On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009‐2012

On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009‐2012

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Article ID: iaor2016644
Volume: 35
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 179
End Page Number: 188
Publication Date: Mar 2016
Journal: Journal of Forecasting
Authors: , , ,
Keywords: behaviour, simulation
Abstract:

This paper considers univariate and multivariate models to forecast monthly conflict events in the Sudan over the out‐of‐sample period 2009–2012. The models used to generate these forecasts were based on a specification from a machine learning algorithm fit to 2000–2008 monthly data. The model that includes previous month's wheat price performs better than a similar model which does not include past wheat prices (the univariate model). Both models did not perform well in forecasting conflict in a neighborhood of the 2012 ‘Heglig crisis’.

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