Structural drivers of upstream supply chain complexity and the frequency of supply chain disruptions

A great deal of research has focused on supply chain risk management, but the question ‘Which supply chain characteristics increase the frequency of supply chain disruptions?’ has not received much attention from empirical research. This is a relevant question, because firms seek stability in their operations, and therefore managers need to know how the structure of their supply chains affects the occurrence of disruptions. The present study addresses this issue with a specific focus on upstream supply chain (supply‐side) disruptions. Drawing on the literature on supply chain complexity, we devise and test a model that predicts the frequency of supply chain disruptions based on a multi‐dimensional conceptualization of upstream supply chain complexity. Not only do the empirical findings suggest that all of the three investigated complexity drivers – horizontal, vertical, and spatial complexity – increase the frequency of disruptions, but also that they interact and amplify each other's effects in a synergistic fashion.