Resilience metrics in the assessment of complex supply-chains performance operating under demand uncertainty

The design and planning of resilient supply chains is a major challenge due to the increasing complexity of these systems that operate in a global market and therefore are more exposed to disruptions. In the present work a design and planning model that integrates demand uncertainty is applied to five supply chain structures that are submitted to different types of disruptions. Disruptions are modelled in a probabilistic manner, resulting in the incorporation of two sources of uncertainty. Eleven indicators are considered to assess the supply chains' resilience, which comprise network design, centralization and operational indicators. The goal is to provide managers what are expected operational impacts (measured by the operational indicators) by assessing the behavior of network and centralization indicators and their known resilience behaviors from the literature. A case study of a European supply chain is used to illustrate the methodology and a discussion on the results obtained is presented in order to conclude which main characteristics a manager should consider when designing and planning resilient supply chains.