An examination of market reaction to substantial shifts in dividend policy

This study provides further empirical evidence on the informational content of dividends hypothesis. To reduce the misclassification of unfavorable and favorable dividend announcements, which can result when small dividend changes are included, the analysis is restricted to cases where a substantial shift in dividend policy has occurred. Specifically, the authors examine the aggregate market response to announcements of (1) omitted dividends, (2) dividend decreases of at least 25 percent, (3) dividend increases of at least 25 percent, and (4) initial dividend payments. The results indicate that announcements of dividend omissions and large decreases have a pronounced downward impact on stock prices even though the market has anticipated the forthcoming news to a large degree. Similarly, the market reaction to initial dividend declarations is found to be substantial and much greater than previously found for favorable dividend classifications in general.