The variation in the value of travel-time savings and the dilemma of high-speed rail in China

This paper examines the variation in the value of travel‐time savings (VTTS), a fundamental element determining the market demand for high‐speed rail. Following a review of time allocation theories, a time allocation model for general travel behavior is proposed as a further elaboration of Evans’ (1972) activities analysis. There are relationships among activities that can be expressed using a linear inequality to show the constraints on the arrangement of activities. This model indicates that two or more activities can be simultaneously rearranged to improve time management, which may be a source of variation in VTTS. This time allocation model can explain why large‐scale high‐speed rail construction in China faces significant market risks and a high likelihood of economic loss. Data from a new ticket sales and booking system for railway passengers indicate that passengers prefer conventional overnight sleeper trains, rather than high‐speed trains, for long‐distance travel, which supports the analysis of the time allocation model.