Research policy and review 34: The development of ideas of uncertainty representation

The historical range and current applications of important ideas about uncertainty are reviewed. It is undertaken for the benefit of decisionmakers and policy analysts who need to confront in a rigorous fashion complex problems that entail large uncertainties. Numerous ideas are addressed, gleaned from many disciplines, including philosophy, mathematics, and artificial intelligence, which can supplement the basic approaches to uncertainty associated with objective and subjective probability. This review of the literature highlights the need for additional research on a number of topics, including uncertainty kinematics, uncertainty representation, subjective uncertainty elicitation, and the synthesis of new approaches to uncertainty with more traditional decision analysis techniques.