A reliability‐based multidisciplinary design optimization procedure based on combined probability and evidence theory

To address the reliability‐based multidisciplinary design optimization (RBMDO) problem under mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, an RBMDO procedure is proposed in this paper based on combined probability and evidence theory. The existing deterministic multistage‐multilevel multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) procedure MDF‐CSSO, which combines the multiple discipline feasible (MDF) procedure and the concurrent subspace optimization (CSSO) procedure to mimic the general conceptual design process, is used as the basic framework. In the first stage, the surrogate based MDF is used to quickly identify the promising reliable regions. In the second stage, the surrogate based CSSO is used to organize the disciplinary optimization and system coordination, which allows the disciplinary specialists to investigate and optimize the design with the corresponding high‐fidelity models independently and concurrently. In these two stages, the reliability‐based optimization both in the system level and the disciplinary level are computationally expensive as it entails nested optimization and uncertainty analysis. To alleviate the computational burden, the sequential optimization and mixed uncertainty analysis (SOMUA) method is used to decompose the traditional double‐level reliability‐based optimization problem into separate deterministic optimization and mixed uncertainty analysis sub‐problems, which are solved sequentially and iteratively until convergence is achieved. By integrating SOMUA into MDF‐CSSO, the Mixed Uncertainty based RBMDO procedure MUMDF‐CSSO is developed. The effectiveness of the proposed procedure is testified with one simple numerical example and one MDO benchmark test problem, followed by some conclusion remarks.