Strategic agricultural land‐use planning in response to water‐supplier variation in a China’s rural region

A strategic agricultural land‐use planning approach was proposed in response to water‐supplier variation under parameter uncertainty. It was capable of examining the implication of various water‐suppliers on agricultural land‐use planning problems, interpreting the response of land‐use schemes to water‐supply patterns with respect to a variety of systematic features, and handling uncertain parameters widely existing in many real‐world practices. A case study in central‐south China demonstrated the applicability of the proposed approach. The modeling inputs of economic‐related parameters were identified as intervals based on statistic data, while those related to water availability were predicted through a distributed hydrological model. Scenarios of (1) no groundwater supplementation, (2) 20% of groundwater supplementation, and (3) 40% of groundwater supplementation to total water demand were considered to generate optimal land‐use plans. Reasonable results were obtained, which were then used to interpret the implication of water‐supplier variation on planning sustainable development strategies. A special rate of groundwater supplementation (i.e. 20.1%) was also suggested to the manager to facilitate regulating long‐term water‐allocation schemes.