Determine targets with revenue maximisation and downside risk hedging considerations under the stochastic setting

This paper studies how to set revenue targets by finding the best trade‐off between the expected return for achieving a target and the expected cost for missing a target when the revenue performance is stochastic. The corresponding formulas of calculating the target under the consideration of revenue maximisation, risk control, and revenue maximisation under controlled risk are developed and different scenarios under certain return and failure cost functions are discussed. This paper further discusses how to set sub‐period targets under the consideration of expected revenue thereby, achieving the target at the period‐end and thus controlling the downside risk. Numerical analysis about how the parameters impacting the downside risk and sub period target is also provided.