Article ID: | iaor20132501 |
Volume: | 24 |
Issue: | 3 |
Start Page Number: | 311 |
End Page Number: | 320 |
Publication Date: | Jul 2013 |
Journal: | IMA Journal of Management Mathematics |
Authors: | Spanias Demetris, Knottenbelt William J |
Keywords: | forecasting: applications, simulation |
Quantitative analysis in tennis has become more important in recent years with the introduction of online betting exchanges. In this paper, the probability of winning a match in tennis is derived hierarchically starting from the probability of each player winning a point on their serve. Under the assumption that each point is identically and independently distributed, the probability of each player winning a point when serving and when returning serve is derived using player statistics. These probabilities can be used to calculate probabilities of winning a game, a set and consequently the match from any point in a live game. Simulated results are then tested against real‐world data and compared against existing models in the literature.