Predicting the outcomes of tennis matches using a low‐level point model

Predicting the outcomes of tennis matches using a low‐level point model

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Article ID: iaor20132501
Volume: 24
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 311
End Page Number: 320
Publication Date: Jul 2013
Journal: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics
Authors: ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications, simulation
Abstract:

Quantitative analysis in tennis has become more important in recent years with the introduction of online betting exchanges. In this paper, the probability of winning a match in tennis is derived hierarchically starting from the probability of each player winning a point on their serve. Under the assumption that each point is identically and independently distributed, the probability of each player winning a point when serving and when returning serve is derived using player statistics. These probabilities can be used to calculate probabilities of winning a game, a set and consequently the match from any point in a live game. Simulated results are then tested against real‐world data and compared against existing models in the literature.

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