A multi‐state Markov model for a short‐term reliability analysis of a power generating unit

This paper presents a multi‐state Markov model for a coal power generating unit. The paper proposes a technique for the estimation of transition intensities (rates) between the various generating capacity levels of the unit based on field observation. The technique can be applied to such units where output generating capacity is uniformly distributed. In order to estimate the transition intensities a special Markov chain embedded in the observed capacity process was defined. By using this technique, all transition intensities can be estimated from the observed realization of the unit generating capacity stochastic process. The proposed multi‐state Markov model was used to calculate important reliability indices such as the Forced Outage Rate (FOR), the Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS) to consumers, etc. These indices were found for short‐time periods (about 100h). It was shown that these indices are sensibly different from those calculated for a long‐term range. Such Markov models could be very useful for power system security analysis and short‐term operating decisions.