| Article ID: | iaor2013610 |
| Volume: | 74 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| Start Page Number: | 167 |
| End Page Number: | 182 |
| Publication Date: | Feb 2013 |
| Journal: | Theory and Decision |
| Authors: | Gilboa Itzhak, Di Tillio Alfredo, Samuelson Larry |
| Keywords: | behaviour |
We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.