Dynamic risk analysis: The DynRisk concept

Motivated by the rapid changes in the world today, the notion of risk is becoming increasingly important. The paper reviews the main trends in risk analysis in Norway. At the present stage, the analysts are heading towards the use of more dynamic risk models. A new software tool called DynRisk has been introduced that is based on influence-diagram models combined with Monte Carlo simulation. The tool represents a new approach to risk modelling. In particular, the methodology introduces a new class of risk models that has proved to be very useful in practical risk modelling.