Ambulance allocation for maximal survival with heterogeneous outcome measures

This paper proposes new models for locating emergency medical services (EMS) by incorporating survival functions for capturing multiple‐classes of heterogeneous patients. The Maximal Expected Survival Location Model for Heterogeneous Patients (MESLMHP) aims to maximize the overall expected survival probability of multiple‐classes of patients, whereby different classes could be defined according to agreed patient categories based on response time targets, or by capturing differing medical conditions each with a corresponding survival function. Furthermore, we propose and demonstrate an approximation approach to solving the extended stochastic version of MESLMHP, which utilizes queuing theory to permit the modeling of congestion and utilization at each ambulance station, and does not require assumptions to be made on the utilization of ambulances. Both models are demonstrated using data from the ambulance service in Wales. We show that our multiple outcome measures and survival‐maximizing approach, rather than one based on average response time targets alone or a single patient class provides more effective EMS ambulance allocations.