Article ID: | iaor20121648 |
Volume: | 40 |
Issue: | 5 |
Start Page Number: | 525 |
End Page Number: | 532 |
Publication Date: | Oct 2012 |
Journal: | Omega |
Authors: | Zhao Jing, Zhao Ze, Wang Jianzhou, Su Zhongyue |
Keywords: | forecasting: applications, statistics: inference |
China is a major developing country where farmers account for over 57% of the population. Thus, promoting a rural economy is crucial if the Chinese government is to improve the quality of life of the nation as a whole. To frame scientific and effective rural policy or economic plans, it is useful and necessary for the government to predict the income of rural households. However, making such a prediction is challenging because rural households income is influenced by many factors, such as natural disasters. Based on the Grey Theory and the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm, this study first developed a high‐precision hybrid model, DE–GM(1,1) to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China. By applying the DE algorithm to the optimization of the parameter