Article ID: | iaor201110912 |
Volume: | 40 |
Issue: | 4 |
Start Page Number: | 456 |
End Page Number: | 464 |
Publication Date: | Aug 2012 |
Journal: | Omega |
Authors: | Durbach Ian N, Stewart Theodor J |
Keywords: | literature survey, utility, stochastic model |
Uncertainty is present in many decisions where an action's consequences are unknown because they depend on future events. Multi‐attribute utility theory (MAUT) offers an axiomatic basis for choice, but practitioners may prefer to use simpler decision models for transparency, ease of use, or other practical reasons. We identify some ‘simplified’ models currently in use and use a simulation experiment to evaluate their ability to approximate results obtained using MAUT. Our basic message is that avoiding assessment errors in the application of a simplified model is more important than the choice of a particular type of model, but that the best performance over a range of decision problems is from a model using a small number of quantiles.