A comparison of simplified value function approaches for treating uncertainty in multi‐criteria decision analysis

A comparison of simplified value function approaches for treating uncertainty in multi‐criteria decision analysis

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor201110912
Volume: 40
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 456
End Page Number: 464
Publication Date: Aug 2012
Journal: Omega
Authors: ,
Keywords: literature survey, utility, stochastic model
Abstract:

Uncertainty is present in many decisions where an action's consequences are unknown because they depend on future events. Multi‐attribute utility theory (MAUT) offers an axiomatic basis for choice, but practitioners may prefer to use simpler decision models for transparency, ease of use, or other practical reasons. We identify some ‘simplified’ models currently in use and use a simulation experiment to evaluate their ability to approximate results obtained using MAUT. Our basic message is that avoiding assessment errors in the application of a simplified model is more important than the choice of a particular type of model, but that the best performance over a range of decision problems is from a model using a small number of quantiles.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.