Scenario‐based Supply Chain Network risk modeling

Scenario‐based Supply Chain Network risk modeling

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Article ID: iaor20125929
Volume: 223
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 644
End Page Number: 658
Publication Date: Dec 2012
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: risk, design, networks
Abstract:

This paper provides a risk modeling approach to facilitate the evaluation and the design of Supply Chain Networks (SCNs) operating under uncertainty. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated with two realistic case studies. Three event types are defined to describe plausible future SCN environments: random, hazardous and deeply uncertain events. A three‐phase hazard modeling approach is also proposed. It involves a characterization of SCN hazards in terms of multihazards, vulnerability sources and exposure levels; the estimation of incident arrival, intensity and duration processes; and the assessment of SCN hit consequences in terms of damage and time to recovery. Based on these descriptive models, a Monte Carlo approach is then proposed to generate plausible future scenarios. The two cases studied illustrate the key aspects of the approach, and how it can be used to obtain resilient SCNs under disruptions.

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