Article ID: | iaor20121401 |
Volume: | 46 |
Issue: | 3 |
Start Page Number: | 517 |
End Page Number: | 548 |
Publication Date: | Mar 2012 |
Journal: | Transportation Research Part A |
Authors: | Hope Chris, Bastani Parisa, Heywood John B |
Keywords: | vehicle routing & scheduling, forecasting: applications |
The future of US transport energy requirements and emissions is uncertain. Transport policy research has explored a number of scenarios to better understand the future characteristics of US light‐duty vehicles. Deterministic scenario analysis is, however, unable to identify the impact of uncertainty on the future US vehicle fleet emissions and energy use. Variables determining the future fleet emissions and fuel use are inherently uncertain and thus the shortfall in understanding the impact of uncertainty on the future of US transport needs to be addressed. This paper uses a stochastic technology and fleet assessment model to quantify the uncertainties in US vehicle fleet emissions and fuel use for a realistic yet ambitious pathway which results in about a 50% reduction in fleet GHG emissions in 2050. The results show the probability distribution of fleet emissions, fuel use, and energy consumption over time out to 2050. The expected value for the fleet fuel consumption is about 450 and 350 billion litres of gasoline equivalent with standard deviations of 40 and 80 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The expected value for the fleet GHG emissions is about 1360 and 850Mt CO