Article ID: | iaor201112428 |
Volume: | 31 |
Issue: | 4 |
Start Page Number: | 566 |
End Page Number: | 577 |
Publication Date: | Apr 2011 |
Journal: | Risk Analysis |
Authors: | Tofani Alessandro |
Keywords: | risk, simulation: applications, stochastic processes |
Radiation exposure devices (REDs) are radiological weapons obtained by concealing a strong gamma-emitting source in a place frequented by public to cause radiation injuries following the absorption of elevated radiation doses. The present work aims to assess the radiological impact of an RED by simulating its effects in both dynamical and static conditions of the covertly exposed population, with individual position and motion obtained through a Monte Carlo approach. The results indicate that in small enclosures the motion of people amplify the effects of radiation exposure with respect to the static case because it turns out in a larger number of individuals receiving doses above the threshold for the onset of deterministic effects. This behavior is mitigated in medium and large enclosures due to dose spreading over trajectories moving far away from the critical region close to the RED. The scaling laws obtained with a simple circular geometry were successfully applied to a more complex geometry like that of a stadium. The potentially large number of victims and the possibility to reiterate the attack raise the question of early detection. This can be achieved either by radiation survey or by indirectly inferring the presence of a strong radioactive source following the triage of patients with radiation sickness symptoms collected by the same hospital. In the former case careful design and operation of aerial or in situ monitoring is needed, while in the latter specific training should be given to healthcare personnel aimed to improve their discrimination and cooperation capabilities.