Real-Time Delay Estimation Based on Delay History in Many-Server Service Systems with Time-Varying Arrivals

Real-Time Delay Estimation Based on Delay History in Many-Server Service Systems with Time-Varying Arrivals

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor201113118
Volume: 20
Issue: 5
Start Page Number: 654
End Page Number: 667
Publication Date: Sep 2011
Journal: Production and Operations Management
Authors: ,
Keywords: markov processes, stochastic processes, programming: markov decision, simulation, simulation: applications
Abstract:

Motivated by interest in making delay announcements in service systems, we study real-time delay estimators in many-server service systems, both with and without customer abandonment. Our main contribution here is to consider the realistic feature of time-varying arrival rates. We focus especially on delay estimators exploiting recent customer delay history. We show that time-varying arrival rates can introduce significant estimation bias in delay-history-based delay estimators when the system experiences alternating periods of overload and underload. We then introduce refined delay-history estimators that effectively cope with time-varying arrival rates together with non-exponential service-time and abandonment-time distributions, which are often observed in practice. We use computer simulation to verify that our proposed estimators outperform several natural alternatives.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.