Article ID: | iaor201113118 |
Volume: | 20 |
Issue: | 5 |
Start Page Number: | 654 |
End Page Number: | 667 |
Publication Date: | Sep 2011 |
Journal: | Production and Operations Management |
Authors: | Whitt Ward, Ibrahim Rouba |
Keywords: | markov processes, stochastic processes, programming: markov decision, simulation, simulation: applications |
Motivated by interest in making delay announcements in service systems, we study real-time delay estimators in many-server service systems, both with and without customer abandonment. Our main contribution here is to consider the realistic feature of time-varying arrival rates. We focus especially on delay estimators exploiting recent customer delay history. We show that time-varying arrival rates can introduce significant estimation bias in delay-history-based delay estimators when the system experiences alternating periods of overload and underload. We then introduce refined delay-history estimators that effectively cope with time-varying arrival rates together with non-exponential service-time and abandonment-time distributions, which are often observed in practice. We use computer simulation to verify that our proposed estimators outperform several natural alternatives.