The use of a basic safety investment model in a practical risk management context

The use of a basic safety investment model in a practical risk management context

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Article ID: iaor20119168
Volume: 96
Issue: 11
Start Page Number: 1421
End Page Number: 1425
Publication Date: Nov 2011
Journal: Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Authors: ,
Keywords: risk, investment
Abstract:

We consider a basic model in economic safety analysis: a firm is willing to invest an amount x in safety measures to avoid an accident A, which in the case of occurrence, leads to a loss of size L. The probability of an accident is a function of x. The optimal value of x is determined by minimizing the expected costs. In the paper, we re‐examine this model by adopting a practical risk/safety management perspective. We question how this model can be used for guiding the firm and regulators in determining the proper level of investment in safety. Attention is given to issues like how to determine the probability of an accident and how to take into account uncertainties that extend beyond the expected value. It is concluded that the model, with suitable extensions and if properly implemented, provides a valuable decision support tool. By focusing on investment levels and stimulating thereby the generation of alternative risk‐reducing measures, the model is considered particularly useful in risk reduction (ALARP) processes.

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