On a risk management analysis of oil spill risk using maritime transportation system simulation

Is it safer for New Orleans river gambling boats to be underway than to be dockside? Is oil transportation risk reduced by lowering wind restrictions from 45 to 35 knots at Hinchinbrook Entrance for laden oil tankers departing Valdez, Alaska? Should the International Safety Management (ISM) code be implemented fleet‐wide for the Washington State Ferries in Seattle, or does it make more sense to invest in additional life craft? Can ferry service in San Francisco Bay be expanded in a safe manner to relieve high way congestion? These risk management questions were raised in a series of projects spanning a time frame of more than 10 years. They were addressed using a risk management analysis methodology developed over these years by a consortium of universities. In this paper we shall briefly review this methodology which integrates simulation of Maritime Transportation Systems (MTS) with incident/accident data collection, expert judgment elicitation and a consequence model. We shall describe recent advances with respect to this methodology in more detail. These improvements were made in the context of a two‐year oil transportation risk study conducted from 2006–2008 in the Puget Sound and surrounding waters. An application of this methodology shall be presented comparing the risk reduction effectiveness analysis of a one‐way zone, an escorting and a double hull requirement in the same context.