Beliefs about overconfidence

Beliefs about overconfidence

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Article ID: iaor20112361
Volume: 70
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 475
End Page Number: 500
Publication Date: Apr 2011
Journal: Theory and Decision
Authors: ,
Keywords: behaviour
Abstract:

This experiment elicits beliefs about other people’s overconfidence and abilities. We find that most people believe that others are unbiased, and only few think that others are overconfident. There is a remarkable heterogeneity between these groups. Those people who think others are underconfident or unbiased are overconfident themselves. Those who think others are overconfident are underconfident themselves. Despite this heterogeneity, people overestimate on average the abilities of others as they do their own ability. One driving force behind this result is the refusal to process information about oneself: not only does this lead to overestimation of one’s own ability, but by means of social projection also to overestimation of others’ abilities.

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