Adaptive Systems Thinking in Integrated Water Resources Management with Insights into Conflicts over Water Exports

Formal decision analysis techniques involving multiple stakeholders and multiple objectives are designed from a system of systems engineering perspective to address, within an adaptive integrative management framework, water resources problems of great importance to social policy and governance. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution and other formal systems methodologies operationalize this management framework for real world decision support within the philosophical structures of operational research, systems engineering and integrative management. To illustrate how a formal systems methodology can produce better understanding of water conflicts and improved guidance for strategic decision making, the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is explained and applied to controversies surrounding proposals for the bulk export of water from Canada. In particular, conflict analyses of bulk water disputes in Eastern Canada (Gisbourne Lake) and Western Canada (Sun Belt) reveal that future bulk water exports are strategically possible, and that dispute resolution mechanisms embedded within international trade agreements can potentially supersede national laws, allowing investors to take control of water resources even if there are irreparable environmental and ecological consequences.