Understanding the impacts of product knowledge and product type on the accuracy of intentions‐based new product predictions

New product development involves several critical decisions. A key decision making area in new product development is the evaluation of the viability and the market potentials of a new product. In the absence of any relevant historical data, companies ask the potential buyers of their products about their intentions to buy those products when assessing their viability. Despite the popularity of the use of behavioral intentions in predicting the market acceptance of new product ideas, both survey and empirical studies suggest that the accuracy of such predictions is usually very low. Although earlier case‐based studies suggest that a number of factors can affect the quality of new product decisions, it is still empirically unclear how product knowledge and the type of new products might impact the predictive accuracy of intentions‐based new product forecasting. This study utilized a longitudinal research design and empirically tested the hypotheses across two new products. The study first collected purchase intentions data about the new products. Second, it collected subsequent actual purchase data about the new products. The results of series of hierarchical regression analyses comparing the initial purchase intentions and subsequent actual behaviors showed that while product knowledge is positively related to the predictive accuracy and consistency of intentions‐based new product forecasting, product type is negatively related to them.