Total Urban Water Cycle Models in Semiarid Environments–Quantitative Scenario Analysis at the Area of San Luis Potosi, Mexico

Systems view thinking and holistic urban water cycle concepts are increasingly called upon for integrated analysis of urban water systems to mitigate water stress in large urban agglomerations. However, integrated analysis is frequently not applied due to the inherent complexity, limitations in data availability and especially the lack of guidelines and suitable software tools. The paper presents the application of the total urban water balance model UVQ to the City of San Luis Potosi (1.2 Mio inhabitants) under the arid conditions of Northern Mexico. UVQ is a lumped parameter model which describes water and contaminant flows from source to sink in urban areas and includes all water types such as rainwater, imported water, surface runoff, wastewater and groundwater. The results were especially useful for spatially explicit groundwater recharge calculation in urban areas. A range of urban water scenarios, including different supply strategies and the effect of externalities such as demand change, were simulated and compared to a calibrated baseline scenario. The analysis demonstrated that shallow urban groundwater resources can substantially mitigate problems of water scarcity and overexploitation of deep aquifers if appropriate water quality protection or fit‐for‐use paradigms are put into place. The modelling exercise delivers relevant information for the decision making process and identifies the most relevant shortcomings in current monitoring systems. This represents a key step on the path to water sensitive and sustainable urban development, including the urban aquifers which have been neglected in the management policy of most cities of the Mexican arid zone.