Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making

Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making

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Article ID: iaor20108494
Volume: 96
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 64
End Page Number: 74
Publication Date: Jan 2011
Journal: Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Authors: ,
Keywords: risk
Abstract:

This paper discusses the challenges involved in the representation and treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment, taking the point of view of its use in support to decision making. Two main issues are addressed: (1) how to faithfully represent and express the knowledge available to best support the decision making and (2) how to best inform the decision maker. A general risk‐uncertainty framework is presented which provides definitions and interpretations of the key concepts introduced. The framework covers probability theory as well as alternative representations of uncertainty, including interval probability, possibility and evidence theory.

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