Robust methods for identifying optimal reservoir operation strategies using deterministic and stochastic formulations

Water allocation in a competing environment is a major social and economic challenge especially in water stressed semi-arid regions. In developing countries the end users are represented by the water sectors in most parts and conflict over water is resolved at the agency level. In this paper, two reservoir operation optimization models for water allocation to different users are presented. The objective functions of both models are based on the Nash Bargaining Theory which can incorporate the utility functions of the water users and the stakeholders as well as their relative authorities on the water allocation process. The first model is called GA– KNN (Genetic Algorithm– K Nearest Neighborhood) optimization model. In this model, in order to expedite the convergence process of GA, a KNN scheme for estimating initial solutions is used. Also KNN is utilized to develop the operating rules in each month based on the derived optimization results. The second model is called the Bayesian Stochastic GA (BSGA) optimization model. This model considers the joint probability distribution of inflow and its forecast to the reservoir. In this way, the intrinsic and forecast uncertainties of inflow to the reservoir are incorporated. In order to test the proposed models, they are applied to the Satarkhan reservoir system in the north-western part of Iran. The models have unique features in incorporating uncertainties, facilitating the convergence process of GA, and handling finer state variable discretization and utilizing reliability based utility functions for water user sectors. They are compared with the alternative models. Comparisons show the significant value of the proposed models in reservoir operation and supplying the demands of different water users.