Behaviour and performance of a water resource system in Québec (Canada) under adapted operating policies in a climate change context

The behaviour of the water resource system of the Peribonka River (Quebec, Canada) exploited for hydropower is evaluated under various hydrological regimes, using different climate change scenarios. The hydrological regime of the recent past and the regimes of 30 climate projections are considered. The potential hydrological regimes are simulated for climate projections from five general circulation models (GCM) for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios and three temporal horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). For each hydrological regime, weekly reservoir operating rules are calculated with a dynamic and stochastic optimization model. Simulations of the water resource system with adapted operating rules in these climate change contexts are compared with the management of the water resource system at the control period (1961–1990). For the majority of climate projections, the analysis of simulations in the context of climate change shows an increase in hydropower and in annual unproductive spills. These increases reach 22% and 300%, respectively, compared to the control period. Also, the reliability of a reservoir is compromised for half of the climate projections, with annual probabilities reaching above the maximum operating levels, up to 0.3%, whereas these probabilities were null for the control period. Despite the rise in production, the annual efficiency of the power plants would fluctuate between -5 to +8%, depending on the power plant, the climate projection and the horizon.