Risk-based evaluation for meeting future water demand of the Brahmaputra floodplain within Bangladesh

A risk-based evaluation is performed for meeting future water demands in the Brahmaputra Floodplain Area within Bangladesh (BFA). This evaluation is carried out using three risk-based performance indicators: reliability, resiliency and vulnerability. The vulnerability indicator has been redefined incorporating the aspect of a supply failure. The analysis includes the impacts of climate change on both water demands and resources, and the generation of synthetic flows of the Brahmaputra River using time series models. The simulated values of the indicators reveal that the expected demand of the BFA up to the year 2050 can be supplied with the proposed Brahmaputra Barrage inside Bangladesh under the ‘no change’ in climatic condition, provided that the groundwater remains usable. However, if groundwater becomes unusable due to widespread arsenic contamination and/or a climate change occurs, it would not be possible to meet the future water demand of the region with high reliability, moderate resiliency and low vulnerability.