A robust Cusum test for SETAR-type nonlinearity in time series

A robust Cusum test for SETAR-type nonlinearity in time series

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Article ID: iaor200969454
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 28
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 266
End Page Number: 276
Publication Date: Apr 2009
Journal: Journal of Forecasting
Authors: , ,
Keywords: cusum charts
Abstract:

As a part of an effective self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) modeling methodology, it is important to identify processes exhibiting SETAR-type nonlinearity. A number of tests of nonlinearity have been developed in the literature. However, it has recently been shown that all these tests perform poorly for SETAR-type nonlinearity detection in the presence of additive outliers. In this paper, we develop an improved test for SETAR-type nonlinearity in time series. The test is an outlier-robust test based on the cumulative sums of ordered weighted residuals from generalized maximum likelihood fits. A Monte Carlo study confirms that the proposed test is competitive with existing tests for data from uncontaminated SETAR models and superior to them for SETAR data contaminated with additive outliers.

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