Electricity demand and supply projections for Indian economy

Electricity demand and supply projections for Indian economy

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Article ID: iaor200969232
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 7
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 167
End Page Number: 179
Publication Date: Jul 2009
Journal: International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy
Authors: ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications
Abstract:

The present paper deals with an econometric model to forecast future electricity requirements for various sectors of Indian economy. Following the analysis of time series of sectoral GDPs, number of consumers in various sectors and price indices of electricity, a logarithmic linear regression model has been developed to forecast long-term demand of electricity up to the year 2045. Using the historical GDP growth in various sectors and the corresponding electricity consumption for the period 1971-2005, it is predicted that the total electricity demand will be 5000 billion kWh, against a supply of 1500 billion kWh in the year 2045. This may lead to a disastrous situation for the country unless drastic policy measures are taken to improve the supply side as well as to reduce demand.

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