Article ID: | iaor200968975 |
Country: | United Kingdom |
Volume: | 60 |
Issue: | 6 |
Start Page Number: | 843 |
End Page Number: | 858 |
Publication Date: | Jun 2009 |
Journal: | Journal of the Operational Research Society |
Authors: | Martzoukos S H |
We value investments under uncertainty with embedded optional costly controls (impulse-type with uncertain outcome) that capture managerial intervention for value enhancement and/or information acquisition (exploration, R&D, advertising, marketing research, etc). Implementing real option models but neglecting such embedded managerial actions can severely underestimate investment opportunities and lead to erroneous investment decisions. Optimal decisions are solutions to a maximization problem where the trade-off between the control's cost and the value added by such actions is explicitly taken into consideration. In this paper, we generalize such a methodology from one dealing with the special case of actions affecting only one state-variable, to one with actions that affect several. Asset values follow geometric Brownian motion or jump-diffusion processes with multiple generating sources of jumps. The Markov-chain numerical methodology we provide can handle sequential controls. Although we report the results with open-loop policies, the approach can be readily extended to accommodate dependency among the controls.