| Article ID: | iaor200968873 |
| Country: | United Kingdom |
| Volume: | 6 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| Start Page Number: | 282 |
| End Page Number: | 287 |
| Publication Date: | Jun 2009 |
| Journal: | International Journal of Operational Research |
| Authors: | Brimberg Jack, Hurley W J |
| Keywords: | hockey |
In their pregame assessments of which team will win an important hockey game, TV commentators will often point out the importance of scoring the first goal, suggesting that a team improves its chances of winning considerably by scoring it. In this note, we use some simple probability theory to calculate how a team's chance of winning (and losing) changes after the first goal.