The art and science of modeling decision-making under severe uncertainty

The art and science of modeling decision-making under severe uncertainty

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Article ID: iaor200935046
Country: Poland
Volume: 1
Issue: 1/2
Start Page Number: 111
End Page Number: 136
Publication Date: Jan 2007
Journal: Decision Making in Manufacturing and Services
Authors:
Keywords: information
Abstract:

For obvious reasons, models for decision–making under severe uncertainty are austere. Simply put, there is precious little to work with under these conditions. This fact highlights the great importance of utilizing in such cases the ingredients of the mathematical model to the fullest extent, which in turn brings under the spotlight the art of mathematical modeling. In this discussion we examine some of the subtle considerations that are called for in the mathematical modeling of decision–making under severe uncertainty in general, and worst–case analysis in particular. As a case study we discuss the lessons learnt on this front from the Info–Gap experience.

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