Use of a coronary heart disease simulation model to evaluate the costs and effectiveness of drugs for the prevention of heart disease

Use of a coronary heart disease simulation model to evaluate the costs and effectiveness of drugs for the prevention of heart disease

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Article ID: iaor200911728
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 59
Issue: 9
Start Page Number: 1173
End Page Number: 1181
Publication Date: Sep 2008
Journal: Journal of the Operational Research Society
Authors: , , ,
Keywords: simulation: applications
Abstract:

A discrete event simulation model of the patient pathways in the treatment of coronary heart disease (CHD) was used to quantify the health gains and costs associated with increasing secondary prevention drugs prescription for patients with CHD based on the level recommended in the National Service Framework for the UK. A Gompertz distribution was sampled for time to failure (death or non–fatal heart attack). The time to failure was modified in relation to the reduced risk of failure for those on the relevant drugs. The results from the model were validated against national data. Increasing the levels of prescription of secondary prevention drugs to those patients with CHD might prevent 100 deaths per million population per year and cost an additional £4 million per million population per year. With cost per life year saved of £5520, this appears good value for money compared with other health technologies.

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