Optimal time to invest under uncertainty with a scale change

Optimal time to invest under uncertainty with a scale change

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Article ID: iaor20091459
Country: Japan
Volume: 51
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 225
End Page Number: 240
Publication Date: Sep 2008
Journal: Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan
Authors:
Keywords: finance & banking, control processes, programming: dynamic
Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the optimal investment problem to maximize expected discounted payoff of a project whose value is given by a product of two processes: a geometric Brownian motion representing continuous fluctuation over time and a Markov process which gives a discontinuous scale change. It turns out that the optimal policy is of threshold type whose thresholds depend on the current state of the Markov process. For 2-state case, the problem can be solved explicitly by using Bellman equation and smooth pasting conditions. On the other hand, the problem becomes much involved when there are multiple states. We exploit the structure of the optimal policy and the form of the value functions which enables us to develop a simple numerical procedure for computing the optimal policy and the value functions.

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