| Article ID: | iaor2009166 |
| Country: | United Kingdom |
| Volume: | 24 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Start Page Number: | 13 |
| End Page Number: | 20 |
| Publication Date: | Jan 2008 |
| Journal: | Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry |
| Authors: | Guerry Marie-Anne |
| Keywords: | markov processes, public service |
A methodology is presented to deal with heterogeneity due to observable variables in modeling personnel systems. For a manpower system, a model based on personnel profiles is introduced. The proposed algorithm concerns an analysis of the evolution of personnel profiles under time-discrete Markov assumptions. In this way, based on an historical personnel database, the estimation of transition probabilities of profiles as well as the computation of forecasts on the evolution of the manpower system can be found.