Forecasting domestic liquidity during a crisis: what works best?

The 1990s were a turbulent time for Latin American and Caribbean countries. During this period, the region suffered from no less than 16 banking crises. One the most important determinants of the severity of a banking crisis is commercial bank liquidity. Banking systems that are relatively liquid are better able to deal with the large deposit withdrawals which tend to accompany bank runs. This study provides an assessment of whether behavioural models, linear time series or nonlinear time series models are better able to account for liquidity dynamics during a crisis.