Article ID: | iaor20083105 |
Country: | Netherlands |
Volume: | 12 |
Issue: | 4 |
Start Page Number: | 377 |
End Page Number: | 401 |
Publication Date: | May 1998 |
Journal: | Evolutionary Ecology |
Authors: | Weber Thomas P., Ens Bruno J., Houston Alasdair I. |
Keywords: | programming: dynamic, behaviour |
Birds migrating between widely separated wintering and breeding grounds may choose among a number of potential stopover sites by using different itineraries. Our aim is to predict the optimal migration schedule in terms of (1) rates of fuel deposition, (2) departure fuel loads and (3) stopover site use, when only a handful of such sites are available. We assume that reproductive success depends on the date and fuel load at arrival on the breeding grounds. On migration, the birds face a trade-off between gaining fuel and avoiding predation. To allow the optimal decision at any given moment to depend on the fuel load and the location of the bird, as well as on unpredictability in conditions, we employed stochastic dynamic programming.