Modeling relocatable nuclear targets

The U.S. Army Concepts Analysis Agency (CAA) is responsible for modeling the employment of tactical nuclear weapons at the theater level. The currently available simulation that models the exchange of tactical nuclear weapons takes a lot of time to set up and run. CAA has used a simple probability model based on alternating renewal processes to make a quick estimate of the probability that a relocatable combat unit can be acquired and engaged by nuclear weapons, without a loss in accuracy compared to the detailed simulation. The model may be applied to either tactical or strategic relocatable targets.