Estimating bus passenger waiting times from incomplete bus arrivals data

This paper considers the problem of estimating bus passenger waiting times at bus stops using incomplete bus arrivals data. This is of importance to bus operators and regulators as passenger waiting time is a key performance measure. Average waiting times are usually estimated from bus headways, that is, time gaps between buses. It is both time-consuming and expensive to measure bus arrival times manually so methods using automatic vehicle location systems are attractive; however, these systems do not usually provide 100% data coverage and missing data are problematical. The paper contributes to the general theory of estimating headway variance using incomplete data. Various methods for replacing missing buses or discarding spurious bus headways are compared and tested on different data sets.