Article ID: | iaor20081532 |
Country: | United Kingdom |
Volume: | 25 |
Issue: | 7 |
Start Page Number: | 513 |
End Page Number: | 527 |
Publication Date: | Nov 2006 |
Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Bewley Ronald, Yang Minxian |
We consider the problem of forecasting a stationary time series when there is an unknown mean break close to the forecast origin. Based on the intercept-correction methods suggested by Clements & Hendry and Bewley, a hybrid approach is introduced, where the break and break point are treated in a Bayesian fashion. The hyperparameters of the priors are determined by maximizing the marginal density of the data. The distributions of the proposed forecasts are derived. Different intercept-correction methods are compared using simulation experiments. Our hybrid approach compares favorably with both the uncorrected and the intercept-corrected forecasts.