| Article ID: | iaor20081324 |
| Country: | United Kingdom |
| Volume: | 25 |
| Issue: | 4 |
| Start Page Number: | 275 |
| End Page Number: | 290 |
| Publication Date: | Jul 2006 |
| Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
| Authors: | Chu Chia-Shang J., Lu Hsin-Min |
| Keywords: | forecasting: applications |
An econometric model for exchange rate based on the behavior of dynamic international asset allocation is considered. The capital movement intensity index is constructed from the adjustment of a fully hedged international portfolio. Including this index as an additional explanatory variable helps to explain the fluctuation of the exchange rate and predict better than the competing random walk model. Supporting empirical evidence is found in Germany–USA, Japan–USA, Singapore–USA and Taiwan–USA exchange markets.