| Article ID: | iaor20081075 |
| Country: | United Kingdom |
| Volume: | 25 |
| Issue: | 3 |
| Start Page Number: | 201 |
| End Page Number: | 207 |
| Publication Date: | Apr 2006 |
| Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
| Authors: | Ashiya Masahiro |
| Keywords: | economics |
Past literature casts doubt on the ability of long-term macroeconomic forecasts to predict the direction of change. We re-examine this issue using the Japanese GDP forecast data of 37 institutions, and find that their l6-month-ahead forecasts contain valuable information on whether the growth rate accelerates or not.