| Article ID: | iaor20081074 |
| Country: | United Kingdom |
| Volume: | 25 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Start Page Number: | 25 |
| End Page Number: | 36 |
| Publication Date: | Jan 2006 |
| Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
| Authors: | Ashiya Masahiro |
| Keywords: | economics |
We investigate the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD over the past three decades. We find that 60% of real-GDP forecast series and 37% of GDP-deflator forecast series are consistent with rationality. Forecast smoothing is found in real-GDP forecasts.