Article ID: | iaor2008877 |
Country: | United Kingdom |
Volume: | 16 |
Issue: | 2 |
Start Page Number: | 179 |
End Page Number: | 194 |
Publication Date: | Apr 2005 |
Journal: | IMA Journal of Management Mathematics (Print) |
Authors: | Wright Mike, Hirotsu Nobuyoshi |
Keywords: | markov processes, programming: dynamic |
This paper proposes a method for identifying the optimal strategy for substituting players in a baseball game, taking into consideration the handedness of players, which is one of the main factors in terms of managerial decision-making for substitution. Using a Markov chain model, we incorporate the effect of the handedness of players by introducing the concept of the defensive earned run average as a measure of the defensive ability of pitchers and calibrating the batting probabilities of players depending on their handedness. We then develop a dynamic programming formulation including the effect of the handedness of players. This method is illustrated using a match based on the real line-ups of the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants in the National League of Major League Baseball, especially focusing on the introduction of a relief pitcher in consideration with his handedness.